Washington, DC…The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 18.3 percent in March and accounted for over half of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 1.0 percent and the food at home index rose 1.5 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.5-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of other indexes also contributing, including those for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month.

The all items index continued to accelerate, rising 8.5 percent for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 8.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. ended
2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 Mar.
2022

All items……………… .4 .9 .7 .6 .6 .8 1.2 8.5
Food…………………. .9 .9 .8 .5 .9 1.0 1.0 8.8
Food at home…………. 1.2 .9 .9 .4 1.0 1.4 1.5 10.0
Food away from home (1).. .5 .8 .6 .6 .7 .4 .3 6.9
Energy……………….. 1.2 3.7 2.4 .9 .9 3.5 11.0 32.0
Energy commodities……. 1.2 4.7 4.2 1.3 -.6 6.7 18.1 48.3
Gasoline (all types)…. 1.1 4.6 4.5 1.3 -.8 6.6 18.3 48.0
Fuel oil (1)………… 3.9 12.3 3.5 -2.4 9.5 7.7 22.3 70.1
Energy services………. 1.2 2.4 .2 .3 2.9 -.4 1.8 13.5
Electricity…………. .6 1.4 .2 .5 4.2 -1.1 2.2 11.1
Utility (piped) gas
service………….. 2.9 5.9 .3 -.3 -.5 1.5 .6 21.6
All items less food and
energy…………….. .3 .6 .5 .6 .6 .5 .3 6.5
Commodities less food and
energy commodities…. .3 1.1 .9 1.2 1.0 .4 -.4 11.7
New vehicles………… 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 .0 .3 .2 12.5
Used cars and trucks…. -.5 2.5 2.4 3.3 1.5 -.2 -3.8 35.3
Apparel…………….. -.7 .6 .7 1.1 1.1 .7 .6 6.8
Medical care
commodities (1)…… .3 .6 .1 .0 .9 .3 .2 2.7
Services less energy
services………….. .2 .4 .4 .3 .4 .5 .6 4.7
Shelter…………….. .4 .5 .5 .4 .3 .5 .5 5.0
Transportation services -1.0 .2 .7 .0 1.0 1.4 2.0 7.7
Medical care services… .2 .4 .3 .3 .6 .1 .6 2.9

1 Not seasonally adjusted.

Food

The food index increased 1.0 percent in March as the food at home index increased
1.5 percent over the month. All six major grocery store food group indexes increased
in March. The largest increase was for other food at home which increased
2.0 percent over the month. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 1.5 percent
following a 2.3-percent increase in February.

The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.0 percent in March, while the
index for cereals and bakery products rose 1.5 percent and the index for nonalcoholic
beverages increased 1.2 percent over the month. The dairy and related products index
also increased 1.2 percent in March.

The food away from home index rose 0.3 percent in March, a smaller increase than in
recent months. The index for full service meals rose 0.7 percent over the month, in
contrast to the index for limited service meals which declined 0.2 percent, its first
decrease since October 2018.

The food at home index rose 10.0 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month
increase since the period ending March 1981. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and
eggs increased 13.7 percent over the last year as the index for beef rose 16.0 percent.
The other major grocery store food group indexes also rose over the past year, with
increases ranging from 7.0 percent (dairy and related products) to 10.3 percent
(other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 6.9 percent over the last year, the largest
12-month increase since December 1981. The index for full service meals rose
8.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose
7.2 percent. The index for food at employee sites and schools, in contrast, declined
30.5 percent over the past 12 months, reflecting widespread free lunch programs.

Energy

The energy index rose 11.0 percent in March following a 3.5-percent increase in
February. The gasoline index rose sharply in March, increasing 18.3 percent after rising
6.6 percent in February. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 19.8 percent
in March.) The index for electricity increased 2.2 percent in March, while the index for
natural gas rose 0.6 percent over the month.

The energy index rose 32.0 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy
component indexes increasing. The index for gasoline rose 48.0 percent over the last year
and the index for natural gas rose 21.6 percent. The index for electricity rose
11.1 percent for the 12 months ending March.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March. The shelter index
increased 0.5 percent in March and accounted for nearly two thirds of the monthly increase
in the all items less food and energy index. The rent index increased 0.4 percent in March
as did the owners’ equivalent rent index. The index for lodging away from home rose
3.3 percent over the month after rising 2.2 percent in February.

The index for airline fares rose 10.7 percent in March, after rising 5.2 percent in
February. The household furnishings and operations index rose 1.0 percent over the month,
the eighth consecutive increase in that index. The index for motor vehicle insurance
increased 0.7 percent in March, and the index for apparel rose 0.6 percent in March.
The index for recreation increased 0.2 percent, and the index for personal care
increased 0.5 percent over the month.

The medical care index increased 0.5 percent in March. The index for physicians’
services also increased 0.5 percent over the month, while the index for hospital
services rose 0.4 percent. The index for prescription drugs fell 0.2 percent in
March, after rising 0.3 percent in February.

The index for new vehicles increased 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent
the previous month. The index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent in March,
its second consecutive monthly decline after a series of large increases. The index
for communication was also among those few indexes which declined over the month,
falling 0.5 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.5 percent over the past 12 months,
with virtually all of its major component indexes rising over the span. The shelter
index rose 5.0 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since May
1991. The index for household furnishings and operations increased 10.1 percent over
the past year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending July 1975.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 8.5 percent over the
last 12 months to an index level of 287.504 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index
increased 1.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased
9.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 283.176 (1982-84=100). For the
month, the index rose 1.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 8.1 percent
over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 1.2 percent on a not
seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are
subject to revision.
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for April 2022 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, May 11,
2022 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods
and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all
urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group
represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures
of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self
-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners
and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living
in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those
in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban
consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on
the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements:
more than one-half of the household’s income must come from clerical or wage occupations,
and at least one of the household’s earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks
during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the
total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’
and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day
living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about
6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores,
supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service
establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in
all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month
in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most
goods and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, or web collection by the
Bureau’s trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are
aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the
appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average.
For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 23
selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among
cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.
For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are
considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject
to three subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and
the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is
December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example,
is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship can also be expressed as the price
of a base period market basket of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based
upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates
and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change
standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard
error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means
that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same
methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these
estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail
prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95
percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall
between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use
the estimates of standard error, see
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes
rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level
of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following
table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:

Item A Item B Item C
Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000
Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000
Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000
Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS
seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are
used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available
at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2022.xlsx. For more
information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal
Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and
in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from weather events,
production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on
changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest
to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension
plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for
seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation
agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the
distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to
calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent
the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009
return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier
data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion
of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to
seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this “prior
adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in
the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2022, BLS adjusted 72 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity,
and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years
of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final
and not subject to revision. For January 2022, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted
indexes for 2017 to 2021 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted
using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2021 will
be applied to data for 2022 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2022 indexes. Series which are
indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal
factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
status from “not seasonally adjusted” to “seasonally adjusted”, or vice versa. If any of the 81
components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from
seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the
aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes
before that period will not be changed. For 2022, 22 of the 81 components of the U.S. city
average all items index are seasonally adjusted.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and
Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at
202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.

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